CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-01-20T09:09:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-01-20T09:09ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18911/-1
CME Note: The source of this CME is a filament eruption visible in SDO/AIA 304 starting around 2022-01-20T08:00Z followed by notable dimming best seen in SDO/AIA 193 and some rising loops after the filament erupts (visible in both SDO/AIA 193 and 171). The source location is just NW of AR 12933. This is a possible combined arrival with the 2022-01-21T09:53Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-01-24T17:09Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-01-23T21:00Z (-4.0h, +8.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Predicted Dst min. in nT: -20
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:
slow CME associated with relatively small filament in solar SW quadrant, CME didnt who that much expansion around the Sn and appeared to be mostly westward directed - maybe a glancing blow,no significant geomagnetic activity expectedLead Time: 84.65 hour(s)
Difference: 20.15 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2022-01-21T04:30Z
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